COVID-19: The Pin that Punctured the Credit Balloon
"Gold is on the cusp of breaking out to all-time highs in U.S. dollars and has already done so in virtually every other currency. Gold mining stocks continue to lag the metal and, in our opinion, represent a compelling investment opportunity at this moment. The COVID-19 pandemic panic was merely the black swan that punctured a financial market asset bubble that took almost a decade to inflate.
Think of the pandemic as the pin that punctured the credit balloon. In a few months, the pandemic will ease (hopefully) with the formulation of a COVID-19 vaccine, widespread testing and other responses that will surely come from the healthcare industry. However, the fiscal and monetary policy damage committed by all governments to save the world has created a debt hangover that will linger for years. Economic growth will rebound but only to subpar levels once extreme health-related restrictions are lifted and “stimulus” kicks in.
The requisites for robust economic growth most likely to misfire are investment confidence and bank lending. Both have been severely compromised. Whether this landscape evolves into a long stretch of deflation or combusts into untamed inflation remains to be seen. What seems quite apparent is that traditional Keynesian stimulus measures are in their endgame. They will most likely deliver only steadily diminishing returns. Starkly opposite economic outcomes are possible from this policy morass; both would be positive for gold but negative for real returns on fixed income or equities."
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John Hathaway, CFASenior Portfolio Manager
50 Years of Investment Experience
John Hathaway joined Sprott Asset Management in January 2020. Mr. Hathaway is a Portfolio Manager of Sprott Hathaway Special Situations Strategy and Co-Portfolio Manager of the Sprott Gold Equity Fund. Previously, Mr. Hathaway joined Tocqueville Asset Management L.P. in 1997 where he was a Co-Portfolio Manager of the Tocqueville Gold Fund as well as other investment vehicles in the Tocqueville Gold Equity Strategy. He was also the Portfolio Manager of private funds. Prior to joining Tocqueville, Mr. Hathaway co-founded and managed Hudson Capital Advisors followed by seven years with Oak Hall Advisors as the Chief Investment Officer in 1986. In 1976, he joined the investment advisory firm David J. Greene and Company, where he became a Partner. Mr. Hathaway began his career in 1970 as an Equity Analyst with Spencer Trask & Co. Mr. Hathaway earned a B.A. from Harvard College and an MBA from the University of Virginia. Mr. Hathaway was also the Chairman of Tocqueville Management Corporation, the General Partner of Tocqueville. He also holds the CFA® designation.
"Gold is on the cusp of breaking out to all-time highs in U.S. dollars and has already done so in virtually every other currency. Gold mining stocks continue to lag the metal and, in our opinion, represent a compelling investment opportunity at this moment. The COVID-19 pandemic panic was merely the black swan that punctured a financial market asset bubble that took almost a decade to inflate.
Think of the pandemic as the pin that punctured the credit balloon. In a few months, the pandemic will ease (hopefully) with the formulation of a COVID-19 vaccine, widespread testing and other responses that will surely come from the healthcare industry. However, the fiscal and monetary policy damage committed by all governments to save the world has created a debt hangover that will linger for years. Economic growth will rebound but only to subpar levels once extreme health-related restrictions are lifted and “stimulus” kicks in.
The requisites for robust economic growth most likely to misfire are investment confidence and bank lending. Both have been severely compromised. Whether this landscape evolves into a long stretch of deflation or combusts into untamed inflation remains to be seen. What seems quite apparent is that traditional Keynesian stimulus measures are in their endgame. They will most likely deliver only steadily diminishing returns. Starkly opposite economic outcomes are possible from this policy morass; both would be positive for gold but negative for real returns on fixed income or equities."
Click here to continue.
John Hathaway, CFASenior Portfolio Manager
50 Years of Investment Experience
John Hathaway joined Sprott Asset Management in January 2020. Mr. Hathaway is a Portfolio Manager of Sprott Hathaway Special Situations Strategy and Co-Portfolio Manager of the Sprott Gold Equity Fund. Previously, Mr. Hathaway joined Tocqueville Asset Management L.P. in 1997 where he was a Co-Portfolio Manager of the Tocqueville Gold Fund as well as other investment vehicles in the Tocqueville Gold Equity Strategy. He was also the Portfolio Manager of private funds. Prior to joining Tocqueville, Mr. Hathaway co-founded and managed Hudson Capital Advisors followed by seven years with Oak Hall Advisors as the Chief Investment Officer in 1986. In 1976, he joined the investment advisory firm David J. Greene and Company, where he became a Partner. Mr. Hathaway began his career in 1970 as an Equity Analyst with Spencer Trask & Co. Mr. Hathaway earned a B.A. from Harvard College and an MBA from the University of Virginia. Mr. Hathaway was also the Chairman of Tocqueville Management Corporation, the General Partner of Tocqueville. He also holds the CFA® designation.
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